Bizval Indicator Report
for December 2025
We like to think of the Bizval Indicator as a ‘barometer’ of SME valuation multiples providing a perspective of the value of New Zealand small-to-medium sized businesses.
Unlike listed companies, the sale prices of SME’s are not readily available. The Bizval Indicator helps monitor movements in the drivers of SME values.
The Bizval Indicator is derived from key drivers of SME values and is then reviewed in the context of a basket of general economic indicators.
Bizval Indicator
| NOW | LAST YEAR | MOVEMENT |
|---|---|---|
| 431 | 373 | 15.8% |
Source: Bizval, 31 December 2025.
Bizval Indicator leaps to close out 2025
The Bizval Indicator jumped to 431 in the December 2025 quarter. This represented an increase of 15.8% on a year-on-year basis from 373 recorded in December 2024.
On a quarterly basis, the December 2025 quarter also increased by 9.2% from 395 recorded in the September 25 quarter.
Following increases in June and September 2025, an increase in December was expected, however the size of the increase was a little surprising. A BIR of over 430 has not been seen since June 2021.
All facets of the Bizval Indicator increased this quarter, with P/E ratios of NZX listed companies increasing the most (up 36% year-on-year).
During the December quarter we valued businesses from a broad range of industries with Construction, Manufacturing, and Wholesale being the most popular industries.
General Economic Indicators
| INDICATOR | NOW | 1 YEAR AGO | MOVEMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NZX 50 NZ (1) | 13,548 | 13,111 | 3.33% |
| RBNZ Official Cash Rate NZ (2) | 2.25% | 4.25% | -2.00% |
| GDP NZ (3) | -0.50% | 0.10% | -0.60% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average USA (4) | 48,063 | 42,544 | 12.97% |
| Inflation (CPI) NZ (5) | 3.00% | 2.20% | 0.80% |
| Unemployment Rate NZ (6) | 5.30% | 4.80% | 0.50% |
(1) Source: NZ Stock Exchange, 31 December 2025
(2) Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 26 November 2025
(3) Source: Stats NZ, 30 September 2025
(4) Source: New York Stock Exchange, 31 December 2025
(5) Source: Stats NZ, 30 September 2025
(6) Source: Stats NZ, 30 September 2025
Inflation (CPI)
Within the 3.0% increase in the CPI in the 12 months to the September 2025 quarter, higher prices were recorded for:
- electricity, up 11.3% (10.1% contribution to the 3.0% rise for all groups)
- actual rentals for housing, up 2.6% (9.2% contribution to all groups)
- local authority rates and payments, up 8.8% (9.2% contribution to all groups)
These were partly offset by lower prices for:
- pharmaceutical products, down 10.6% (-2.7% contribution to all groups)
- telecommunication equipment, down 15.2% (-2.6 percent contribution to all groups
(Source: StatsNZ)
Unemployment
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.3% in the September 2025 quarter, compared with 5.2% in the June 2025 quarter.
In the year ended September 2025:
- all salary and wage rates (including overtime) increased 2.1%
- average weekly earnings (including overtime) for full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) increased to $1,688 from $1,621
- average ordinary time hourly earnings increased to $43.60 from $41.98
(Source: StatsNZ)
Drivers of SME Values
The Bizval Indicator is calculated using a proprietary formula. We research, monitor and evaluate the following components to arrive at the result.
NZX Small Cap P/E Ratios
Small Capitalisation companies have greater similarities to private SMEs than large cap stocks. Bizval reviews the mean and median price earnings (P/E) ratios of companies with market capitalization of between $20 million and $200 million. We adjust these figures to align them more closely with private SMEs by reducing the P/E ratios to account for differences in size, key-person dependence and ability to easily buy or sell (liquidity).
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Business Loan Interest Rates
Bizval monitors the advertised interest rates of New Zealand major banks for business loans. Using an average of these rates we then add a risk margin (commonly added to the base rate by banks when lending to small businesses). We also add a hypothetical margin for the SME proprietor to reflect their return on investment. This interest rate is then converted to a multiple.
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Businesses for Sale
Bizval undertakes a review of the volume of businesses listed for sale across New Zealand, taking into account any movements in this number.
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Bizval Multiples
We review an average of the multiples used in our business valuations and combine these with multiples from actual business sales (where available).
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In addition to the four drivers of SME values, the Bizval Indicator is evaluated in the context of six national / international General Economic Indicators.
The NZX 50 Index (New Zealand Stock Exchange)
The NZX 50 Index (NZ50) is the primary stock market index in New Zealand. It comprises the 50 biggest stocks by free-float market capitalisation trading on the New Zealand Stock Market (NZSX).
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate
The RBNZ sets the target ‘cash rate’, which is the market interest rate on overnight funds. It uses this as the instrument for monetary policy and influences the cash rate through its financial market operations.
Gross Domestic Product (New Zealand)
GDP is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced over a defined period of time.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA)
The ‘Dow’ is a US stock market price-weighted index monitoring the share trading performance of 30 large, publicly owned American-based companies.
Inflation Rate (New Zealand)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by New Zealand households for a fixed basket of goods and services.
Unemployment Rate (New Zealand)
This indicator is the official unemployment rate for New Zealand. The unemployment rate reflects conditions of the labour market and economy overall. It gives a sense of the number of people seeking work.
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